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A smarter approach to the UK’s GP crisis
 

Could the vast and escalating primary care crisis in England be helped with a new and innovative online dashboard, which automatically sends short videos contributed by clinicians to patients’ mobiles to address their FAQs?
 
Dr Seth Rankin an experienced GP thinks it can. Click on the photo below to access a short video, which demonstrates how the dashboard works.
 

 
 
UK’s Secretary of State predicted the healthcare crisis
 

“Most patients don’t remember half of what is said in short GP consultations. This is why videos are so important. Unlike doctors and pamphlets videos never get tired, never wear out, and are available 24/7, 365 days a year. Unlike the Internet, the dashboard provides premium reliable healthcare information, which easily can be consumed by patients and shared among family, friends and carers. The video content can be viewed many times, from anywhere, and at anytime. The dashboard is fully automated [see figure below], relieves GPs of a lot of unnecessary work, and importantly, reports on how patients’ use the different videos,” says Rankin; CEO of the London Doctors Clinic; and formally the managing partner of the Wandsworth Medical Centre, and co-chair of Wandsworth CCG’s Diabetes Group.
 

 

‘The dashboard uses videos of local healthcare professionals because both patients and doctors want to improve their connectivity. The dashboard is embedded with about 120 short, 60 to 80 second, talking-head videos, which address patients’ frequently asked questions. Research suggests that the average attention span for people watching videos on mobiles is between 60 to 80 seconds. The dashboard has been specifically designed to help increase patients’ knowledge of their condition, propel them towards self-management, slow the onset of complications, lower the number of unnecessary visits to A&E, reduce face-time with GPs, and enhance the quality of care,” says Rankin.
 

The efficacy of healthcare education is enhanced by embedded behavioral techniques, which nudge people to change their diets and lifestyles, improve self-monitoring of their condition, and increase adherence to medications.  The HealthPad dashboard benefits from such behavioral techniques.
 

The dashboard has been developed by health professionals with significant patient input, and aims to get effective educational content to the largest number of people at the lowest price possible; and without requiring effort from health professionals to mediate or facilitate the flow of the knowledge. To achieve this the dashboard is not a “lock-in” system, but designed to be easily and cheaply re-engineered to integrate with various other communications systems, see diagram below. The only thing that the dashboard requires is a connection to the Internet. 
 

 

A 2016 study published in The Lancet suggests that between 2007 and 2014 the workload in NHS general practice in England had increased by 16%, and that it is now reaching saturation point. According to Professor Richard Hobbs of Oxford University and lead author of the study, "For many years, doctors and nurses have reported increasing workloads, but for the first time, we are able to provide objective data that this is indeed the case . . . . . As currently delivered, the system [general practice in England] seems to be approaching saturation point . . . . . Current trends in population growth, low levels of recruitment and the demands of an ageing population with more complex needs will mean consultation rates will continue to rise.”
 

A 2014 Deloitte’s report commissioned by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) suggests that the GP crisis in England is the result of chronic under-funding and under-investment when the demand for GP services is increasing as the population is ageing, and there is a higher prevalence of long-term conditions and multi-morbidities.
 
Each day in England, more than 1m patients visit their GPs. Some GPs routinely see between 40 to 60 patients daily. Over the past 5 years, the number of GP consultations has increased by 60m each year, and now stands at about 370m a year. Over the same period, the number of GPs has grown by only 4.1%.
 

Deloitte’s findings are confirmed by of a 2016 comparative study undertaken by the prestigious Washington DC-based Commonwealth Fund, which concluded that increasing workloads, bureaucracy and the shortest time with patients has led to 59% of NHS GPs finding their work either “extremely” or “very” stressful: significantly higher stress levels than in any other western nation. GP stress levels are likely to increase.
 
In a speech made in June 2015, the UK’s Secretary of Health said, “Within 5 years we will be looking after a million more over-70s. The number of people with three or more long term conditions is set to increase by 50% to nearly three million by 2018. By 2020, nearly 100,000 more people will need to be cared for at home.” Dr. Maureen Baker, the former chair of the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) has warned that, “Rising patient demand, excessive bureaucracy, fewer resources, and a chronic shortage of GPs are resulting in worn-out doctors, some of whom are so fatigued that they can no longer guarantee to provide safe care to patients.” And Dr  Helen Stokes-Lampard, the new head of the RCGP, warns that patients are being put at risk because they often have to wait for a month before they can see a GP.
 

Trainee GPs are dwindling and young GPs are moving abroad. According to data from the General Medical Council (GMC), between 2008 and 2014 an average of 2,852 certificates were issued annually to enable British doctors to work abroad. We now have a dangerous situation where there are hundreds of vacancies for GP trainees. Meanwhile, findings from a 2015 British Medical Association (BMA) poll of 15,560 GPs, found that 34% of respondents plan to retire in the next five years because of high stress levels, unmanageable workloads, and too little time with patients.
 

In 2016 the government announced a rescue package that will see an extra £2.4bn a year ploughed into primary care services by 2020. This is expected to pay for 5,000 more GPs and extra staff to boost practices. When the Secretary of Health trailed this in 2015, doctors’ leaders did not view it as a viable solution. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the BMA’s GP committee, warned that, “delivering 5,000 extra GPs in five years, when training a GP takes 10 years, was a practical impossibility and would never be achieved.” In 2016, Pulse, a publication for GPs, suggested that the Health Secretary understands that he cannot deliver on his election promise of 5,000 new doctors by 2020, and is negotiating with Apollo Hospitals, an Indian hospital chain, to bring 400 Indian GPs to England.
 

Pharmacists in GP surgeries
 

Progressive and helpful move
 

People with complex conditions deserve to be seen by a GP who is not stressed and who can devote the time and attention they need. “Videos could play a similar role to practice-based pharmacists. Both deal with simple day-to-day patient questions, and relieve pressure on GPs, which allows them to focus their skills where they are most needed,” says Rankin.

 

This book should be compulsory reading for everyone interested in health and healthcare, especially those grappling with strategic challenges. Homo Deus: A brief history of tomorrow, by Yuval Harari, a world bestselling author, published in 2016 is not for tacticians responding to their in-trays, but for healthcare strategists planning for the future.

The book is published a year after an OECD report concluded that NHS England is one of the worst healthcare systems in the developed world; hospitals are so short-staffed and under-equipped that people are dying needlessly. The quality of care across key health areas is “poor to mediocre”, obesity levels are “dire”, and the NHS struggles to get even the “basics” right. The UK came 21st out of 23 countries on cervical cancer survival, 20th on breast and bowel cancer survival and 19th on stroke.

Harari pulls together history, philosophy, theology, computer science and biology to produce an important and thought provoking thesis, which has significant implications for the future of health and healthcare. Homo Deus, more than the 2015 OECD Report,  will make you think.
 

While a large and growing universe of consumers regularly use smartphones, cloud computing, and global connectivity to provide them with efficient, high quality, 24-hour banking, education, entertainment, shopping, and dating, healthcare systems have failed to introduce digital support strategies to enhance the quality of care, increase efficiency, and improve patient outcomes.

Why?

The answer is partly due to entrenched legacy systems, and partly because digital support infrastructure is typically beyond the core mission of most healthcare systems. Devi Shetty, cardiac surgeon, founder and CEO of Narayana Health, and philanthropist, laments how digital technologies have, “penetrated every industry in the world except healthcare”, and suggests doctors and the medical community are the biggest obstaclesto change.

 

Notwithstanding, modern medicine has conquered killer infectious diseases, and has successfully transformed them, “from an incomprehensible force of nature into a manageable challenge . . . For the first time in history, more people die today from old age than from infectious diseases,” says Harari.
 
Further, modern healthcare systems were built on the assumption that individual doctors provided healthcare systems with meaning and power. Doctors are free to use their superior knowledge and experience to diagnose and treat patients; their decisions can mean life or death. This endowed doctors and healthcare systems with their monopoly of power and their raison d'être. But such power and influence is receding, and rapidly being replaced by biotechnology and algorithms.
 

This radical change adds to the crisis of healthcare systems, which lack cash, and have a shrinking pool of doctors treating a large and growing number of patients, an increasing proportion of whom are presenting with complicated co-morbidities. Aging equipment in healthcare systems is neither being replaced nor updated, and additionally, there is a dearth of digital infrastructure to support patient care.
  
A symptom of this crisis is the large and increasing rates of misdiagnosis: 15% of all medical cases in developed countries are misdiagnosed, and according to The Journal of Clinical Oncology, a staggering 44% of some types of cancers are misdiagnosed, resulting in millions of people suffering unnecessarily, thousands dying needlessly, and billions of dollars being wasted. Doing more of the same will not dent this crisis.

 
Computers replacing doctors
 

One example is IBM’s Watson, which is able to read 40 million medical documents in 15 seconds, understand complex medical questions, and identify and present evidence based solutions and treatment options. Despite the resistance of doctors and the medical establishment the substitution of biotechnology and algorithms for doctors is occurring in healthcare systems throughout the world, and cannot be stopped. “The train is again pulling out of the station . . . . Those who miss it will never get a second chance”. For healthcare systems to survive and prosper in the 21^st century is to understand and embrace “the powers of biotechnology and algorithms”. People and organizations that fail to do this will not survive, says Harari.
 

Roger Kornberg, Professor of Medicine at Stanford University who won the 2006 Nobel Prize in chemistry, "for his studies of the molecular basis of eukaryotic transcription", describes how human genome sequencing and genomics have fundamentally changed the way healthcare is organized and delivered. “Genomic sequencing enables us to identify every component of the body responsible for all life processes. In particular, it enables the identification of components, which are either defective or whose activity we may wish to edit in order to improve a medical condition,” says Kornberg.

 

Harari’s “new world” describes some of the implications of Kornberg’s discoveries, and suggests that evolutionary science is rapidly eroding doctors’ discretion and freewill, which are the foundation stones of modern healthcare systems and central to a doctors’ modus vivendi. Because evolutionary science has been programmed by millennia of development, our actions tend to be either predetermined or random. This results in the uncoupling of intelligence from consciousness and the “new world” as data-driven transformation, which Harari suggests is just beginning, and there is little chance of stopping it.
 
Over the past 50 years scientific successes have built complex networks that increasingly treat human beings as units of information, rather than individuals with free will. We have built big-data processing networks, which know our feelings better than we know them ourselves. Evolutionary science teaches us that, in one sense, we do not have the degree of free will we once thought. In fact, we are better understood as data-processing machines: algorithms. By manipulating data, scientists such as Kornberg, have demonstrated that we can exercise mastery over creation and destruction. The challenge is that other algorithms we have built and embedded in big data networks owned by organizations can manipulate data far more efficiently than we can as individuals. This is what Harari means by the “uncoupling” of intelligence and consciousness.
 

Harari is not a technological determinist: he describes possibilities rather than make predictions. His thesis suggests that because of the dearth of leadership in the modern world, and the fact that our individual free-will is being replaced by data processors, we become dough for the Silicon Valley “Gods” to shape.
 
Just as African chiefs in the 19^th Century gave away vast swathes of valuable land, rich in minerals, to imperialist businessmen such as Cecil Rhodes, for a handful of beads; so today, we are giving away our most valuable possessions  - vast amounts of personal data - to the new “Gods” of Silicon Valley: Amazon, Facebook, and Google for free. Amazon uses these data to tell us what books we like, and Facebook and Google use them to tell us which partner is best suited for us. Increasingly, big-data and powerful computers, rather than the individual opinion of doctors, drive the most important decisions we take about our health and wellbeing. Healthcare systems will cede jobs and decisions to machines and algorithms, says Harari.
 

For the time being, because of the entrenched legacy systems, health providers will continue to pay homage to our individuality and unique needs. However, in order to treat people effectively healthcare systems will need to “break us up into biochemical subsystems”, and permanently monitor each subgroup with powerful algorithms. Healthcare systems that do not understand and embrace this new world will perish. Only a relatively few early adopters will reap the rewards of the new technologies. The new elite will commandeer evolution with ‘intelligent’ design, edit peoples’ genomes, and eventually merge individuals with machines. Thus, according to Harari, a new elite caste of Homo sapiens will evolve into Homo Deus. In this brave new world, only the new “Gods”, with access to the ultimate source of health and wellbeing will survive, while the rest of mankind will be left behind.

Harari does not believe this new health world is inevitable, but implies that, in the absence of effective leadership, it is most likely to happen.
 

Cost-effective asset to relieve growing pressure on GPs

Can the escalating primary care crisis in England be helped with a new and innovative online dashboard, which automatically sends short videos contributed by clinicians to patients’ mobiles to address their FAQs?
 
Dr Seth Rankin, Managing Partner of the Wandsworth Medical Centre, and co-chair of Wandsworth CCG’s diabetes group, who has spearheaded the dashboard, thinks it can. Click on the photo below to view a short video that describes how health professionals can use the dashboard:
 

 

 

 
A 24/7 fully automated service that never wears out
“We were motivated to do something about the increasing pressure on GPs, and the impact this has on the quality of our care. Patients may have to wait a couple of days for an appointment with a GP, but they can receive our videos within minutes of their request,” says Rankin. He continues: “A pilot study we carried out in two London primary care practices suggested that video is a patient’s preferred format if they can’t see a GP. Further, patients often don’t retain what you tell them in a 10-minute face-to-face consultation, and they tend not to read pamphlets, which also are expensive to produce. 53% of patients regularly search the Internet for healthcare information, but 81% can’t differentiate between good and bogus information. 72% prefer healthcare information from their GP, and like healthcare videos delivered directly to their mobiles. 70% want access to healthcare information at any time, from anywhere, on their mobiles.
 
“Unlike the Internet, our dashboard provides premium reliable information, which can be easily consumed and shared among family, friends and carers. Also, the videos can be viewed many times, from anywhere, and unlike pamphlets and doctors, they never get tired, never wear out, and are available 24/7, 365 days a year. The dashboard is fully automated [see figure below], relieves GPs of a lot of unnecessary work, and, importantly, reports on how our patients’ are using the different videos.”
 

Automated system that encourages engagement behaviours
 

Local experts
“We used local medical experts in our videos because we were keen to increase their connectivity with our patients. The videos provide 60 to 80 second talking-head answers to patients’ questions, and are designed to increase patients’ knowledge of their condition, propel them towards self-management, slow the onset of complications, and reduce face-time with GPs, while enhancing the quality of our care,” says Rankin.
 
Diabetes
He continues: “Although the dashboard easily can be used for any disease state, we started with T2DM as it represents our largest group of patients. Also, we know that: (i) T2DM is preventable with effective education that encourages diet and lifestyle changes, (ii) current diabetes education fails, and over the past decade, the incidence rate of the condition has increased by 65%, (iii) only 16% of the 120,000 people diagnosed each year with diabetes in England are offered structured educational courses, and (iv) only 2% of those offered courses actually enrol in them. So, we created our own bespoke dashboard and content library of about 120 videos, which we organised under 10 headings that we know interest our patients. Each heading has a cluster of ‘essential’ and ‘in-depth’ videos. We use the dashboard to relieve some of the pressure on our health professionals.”
 

 
Saturation point
A 2016 study published in The Lancet suggests that between 2007 and 2014 the workload in NHS general practice had increased by 16%, and that it is now reaching saturation point. According to Professor Richard Hobbs of Oxford University and lead author of the study, "For many years, doctors and nurses have reported increasing workloads, but for the first time, we are able to provide objective data that this is indeed the case . . . . . As currently delivered, the system [general practice in England] seems to be approaching saturation point . . . . . Current trends in population growth, low levels of recruitment and the demands of an ageing population with more complex needs will mean consultation rates will continue to rise.”
 
More than 1m patients visit GP every day
A 2014 Deloitte’s report commissioned by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) suggests that the GP crisis in England is the result of chronic under-funding and under-investment in primary care at a time when the demand for GP services is increasing as the population is ageing, and there is a higher prevalence of long term conditions and multi-morbidity.
 
According to the RCGP, over the past five years the number of annual GP consultations has increased by 60 million to around 370 million, while over the same period the number of GPs has grown by only 4.1%. More than one million patients a day visit their GP surgeries, with some GPs now routinely seeing between 40 to 60 patients daily.
 
GPs are extremely stressed
Deloitte’s findings are confirmed by a 2016 comparative study undertaken by the prestigious Washington DC-based Commonwealth Fund, which concludes that increasing workloads, bureaucracy and the shortest time with patients has led to 59% of NHS GPs finding their work either “extremely” or “very” stressful: significantly higher stress levels than in any other western nation. GP stress levels are likely to increase. In a speech made in June 2015, the UK’s Secretary of Health said, “Within 5 years we will be looking after a million more over-70s. The number of people with three or more long term conditions is set to increase by 50% to nearly three million by 2018. By 2020, nearly 100,000 more people will need to be cared for at home.” According to Dr Maureen Baker, chair of RCGP, “Rising patient demand, excessive bureaucracy, fewer resources, and a chronic shortage of GPs are resulting in worn-out doctors, some of whom are so fatigued that they can no longer guarantee to provide safe care to patients.”
 

 
GP exodus
Trainee GPs are dwindling and young GPs are moving abroad. According to data from the General Medical Council (GMC), between 2008 and 2014 an average of 2,852 certificates were issued annually to enable British doctors to work abroad. We now have a dangerous situation where there are hundreds of vacancies for GP trainees. Meanwhile, findings from a 2015 British Medical Association (BMA) poll of 15,560 GPs found that 34% of respondents plan to retire in the next five years because of high stress levels, unmanageable workloads, and too little time with patients.
 

 
5,000 more GPs by 2020
In the run up to the UK’s 2015 General Election the Secretary of Health pledged “to train and retain an extra 5,000 GPs by 2020” to ease the primary care crisis, but doctors’ leaders did not see this as a solution. Dr Maureen Baker said, "Even if we were to get an urgent influx of extra funding and more GPs, we could not turn around the situation [the GP crisis] overnight due to the length of time it takes to train a GP,” And Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the BMA GPs’ committee, warned later that, “delivering 5,000 extra GPs in five years, when training a GP takes 10 years, was a practical impossibility that was never going to be achieved.” After the election the Health Secretary softened his promise and suggested that it would be ‘a maximum' of 5,000 by 2020.

In 2016, Pulse, a publication for GPs, suggested that the Health Secretary knows he cannot deliver his promise of 5,000 new doctors by 2020, and is negotiating with Apollo Hospitals, an Indian hospital chain, to bring 400 Indian GPs to England.
 

Better and smarter solutions needed
While searching for an immediate temporary solution to the GP crisis the Secretary of Health seems to understand that a more innovative approach is required for the medium to long term. In his June 2015 speech he said, “If we do not find better, smarter ways to help our growing elderly population remain healthy and independent, our hospitals will be overwhelmed – which is why we need effective, strong and expanding general practice more than ever before in the history of the NHS. Innovation in the workforce skill mix will be vital too in order to make sure GPs are supported in their work by other practitioners.”
 
Pharmacists in GP surgeries
In July 2015 the NHS launched a £15m pilot scheme, supported by the RCGP and the Royal Pharmaceutical Society (RPS), to fund, recruit and employ clinical pharmacists in GP surgeries to provide patients with additional support for managing medications and better access to health checks.
 
Dr Maureen Baker said, “GPs are struggling to cope with unprecedented workloads and patients in some parts of the country are having to wait weeks for a GP appointment yet we have a ‘hidden army’ of highly trained pharmacists who could provide a solution”. Dr David Branford, former Chair of the RPS said, “It’s a win-win situation . . . .  We will be doing everything we can to support the GPs and make sure this pilot is successful. In time, I hope pharmacists will be working in every GP practice in the country.” Ash Soni, president of the RPS suggests that it makes sense for pharmacists to help relieve the pressure on GPs, and says, “Around 18m GP consultations every year are for minor ailments. Research has shown that minor aliment services provided by pharmacists can provide the same treatment results for patients, but at lower cost than at a GP surgery.”
 
Progressive and helpful move
The efficacy for an enhanced role of pharmacists in primary care has already been established in the US, where retail giants such as CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid have led the charge in providing convenient walk-in clinics staffed by pharmacists and nurse practitioners. Over time, Americans have grown to trust and value their relations with pharmacists, which has significantly increased adherence to medications, and provided GPs more time to devote to more complex cases. Non-adherence is costly, and can lead to increased visits to A&E, unnecessary complications, and sometimes death. According to a New England Healthcare Institute report, Thinking Beyond the Pillbox, failure to take medication correctly, costs the US healthcare system $300 billion annually, and results in 125,000 deaths every year. 
 

Takeaway
 

Introducing pharmacists into GP surgeries is a progressive and potentially helpful move forward, because, as Dr Maurine Baker suggests, “It is in everyone’s best interests to be seen by a GP who is not stressed or fraught and who can focus on giving their patients the time, attention and energy they need”. However, even more could be achieved if the dashboard described by Dr Seth Rankin were more widely introduced. “Videos play a similar role to practice-based pharmacists. Both deal with simple day-to-day patient questions, and relieve pressure on GPs, which allows them to focus their skills where they are most needed,” says Rankin.

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What are the most common misdiagnosis found through autopsy? By Sebastian Lucas
 

Why misdiagnosis occurs
Reasons given for misdiagnosis include the fragmented nature of healthcare systems, and the over burdened, demoralised and scarce supply of primary care doctors. See, Curing the Problems of General Practice. In 2008 Eta Berner and Mark Graber published a paper in the American Journal of Medicine entitled, ‘Diagnostic Error: Is Overconfidence the Problem?’ which suggests that both intrinsic and systemically reinforced factors lead doctors to be over confident in their ability to diagnose, and once a diagnosis is made and a treatment pathway started, a momentum occurs, which is difficult to change.

Doctors trained to take short cuts
At the root of misdiagnosis is the way that doctors are trained, says Jerome Groopman, Professor of Medicine at the Harvard Medical School, and Chief of Experimental Medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.
 
Groopman’s thesis is predicated on the concept of the availability heuristic developed by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman, notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making. In his book How Doctors Think, Groopman suggests that doctors are trained to recall similar recent cases when making a diagnosis. For example, common infections picked up by children at school often affect entire communities. Once a doctor has seen, say, nine such cases, the information about them is immediately available in his subconscious, and creates a tendency for the tenth patient presenting similar symptoms to be diagnosed the same although the actual illness might be different.
 
Such mental shortcuts are indispensible in a medical setting. In A&E, for example, doctors are encouraged to use mental shortcuts to help them make rapid decisions often on incomplete information; failure to do so could mean the difference between life and death.
 
Will misdiagnosis increase?
Structural reasons suggest that misdiagnosis will not be reduced in the near term. According to the Royal College of General Practitioners the shortage of doctors in the UK is the worst it has been for 40 years. Established GPs are retiring early, and a significant proportion of newly qualified GPs are moving abroad where pay and working conditions are better. One hundred primary care practices, serving 700,000 patients across Britain, are facing closure, and the number of doctor-patient consultations is estimated to rise from 338 million in 2013 to 441 million by 2017.

Similarly in the US, the Association of American Medical Colleges predicts increasing shortages of doctors: 130,600 by 2025. One reason for the shortage is the aging of both doctors and their patients. According to a 2012 Physicians Foundation survey, nearly half of the 830,000 doctors in the US are over 50, and approaching retirement.

Thus, fewer doctors in both the UK and US face having to diagnose an increasing number of aging patients presenting complex conditions, at a time when the volume of medical data are doubling every 73 days. Under such conditions it seems reasonable to assume that the incidence of misdiagnosis will not decrease.

Increased role for cognitive computers in medicine
Will the increased pressure on doctors to diagnose more accurately be helped by artificial intelligence (AI)? Although there are some challenges for AI in a medical setting, it is well positioned to play an increased role in diagnosis. This is confirmed by Google’s DeepMind AlphaGo computer’s landmark defeat of Lee Sedol, a 33-year-old grandmaster of the ancient Asian game GO in March 2016. Let us explain.
 
AI: the complex algorithms that analyze and transform electronic medical data, into clinically relevant medical opinions for health professionals has developed significantly as the demand for healthcare increased, healthcare costs escalated, and the supply of doctors decreased.

 

What is the next "big thing" in healthcare? By Devi Shetty
 

The relationship between the game GO and medical diagnosis
For some time, cognitive computers have been able to defeat the world’s best human players of games such as draughts and backgammon by enumerating every possible move, and drawing up rules for how to guarantee that a computer will be able to play to at least a draw. Although more complex, chess computers rely on a modified version of the same tactic. In 1997 for example, when IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated former world chess champion Garry Kasparov, it could evaluate 200 million possible moves in a second.
 
But GO is different: its simplicity belies its astonishing complexity. There are more legal board states for a game of GO than there are atoms in the universe, and just like in medical diagnoses, reaction and intuition are important. These intangible aspects of the game GO, and diagnosis, make them resistant to the tactic by which games in the past have been “solved” by computers. Experts predicted that it would take another 10 years before a computer program would stand a chance even against a weak GO player. This is why a computer’s defeat of Lee Sedol, signaled a landmark moment for AI, and has implications for medical diagnosis.
 

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GOis played by two people on a 19-by-19 grid-board, with 361 black and white stones, 181 black and 180 white. Each player takes turns placing their stones in an attempt to surround and capture their opponent’s pieces. The player who controls more territory is the winner. The first move of a game of chess offers 28 possibilities; the first move of a game of GO can involve placing the stone in one of 361 positions. An average game of chess lasts around 80 turns, while on average GO game lasts for some 150 turns, which leads to a staggering number of possibilities.

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Cognitive computing and diagnosis
Cognitive computing systems that understand, reason, and learn, also are able to see health data that were previously hidden, and do more than we ever thought possible. Doctors have access to such computers, which provide them with collective knowledge gathered from thousands of healthcare providers, millions of patients’ records, and millions of treatments other doctors have prescribed to people presenting similar symptoms and disease states. Such computers are capable of analyzing in seconds these data and identifying patterns that humans cannot.

Further, unlike doctors, computers work 24-7, 365 days a year, they never get tired or demoralised, and they never leave. Also, computers are faster and more thorough than doctors, and can analyse vast amounts of patient data, identify trends in seconds and consistently make more accurate diagnoses. One example is IBM’s Watson, a computer, already being used in medicine, which can attain high levels of cognitive behaviour. Watson uses natural language processing to analyse structured and unstructured data common in clinical notes and reports, and can read 40 million medical documents in 15 seconds, understand complex questions, and identify and present evidence based solutions and treatment options. In the US similar computer programs have stopped making clinical recommendations based on the most popular therapies prescribed by its users, to providing doctors with clinical recommendations based on patient outcomes.
 
Challenges for AI in medical diagnosis
Despite the fact that AI systems are getting smarter there are still significant challenges associated with the compatibility of computer systems, the integrity of medical data; and data security and access. Further, as AI systems get smarter so the line between computers recommending and deciding becomes blurred. Healthcare providers are wary not to allow their AI systems to make clinical decisions because this would mean that they would be viewed as “medical devices”, and require FDA approval, which can be a costly and lengthy process to obtain.
 
Doctor’s resistance to AI systems
A doctor’s raison d'être has been to diagnose and treat illnesses, which ordinary people cannot do because it requires expertise, intuition and interpersonal skills. Some doctors argue that computers will never be able to provide such skills. But medical knowledge, which previously resided in the minds of the few doctors, has become readily available to everyone over the Internet, and doctors have changed from being the sole processors of that knowledge, to being the interpreters of such knowledge; in this scenario AI has an important role.

Takeaway
Professor Stephen Hawking and other leading scientists have warned of the dangers of AI becoming “too clever”. There are also concerns about data security and privacy, and some doctor’s fear cognitive computers could diminish their role. However, the defeat of Lee Sedol by AlphaGo has demonstrated that computers can attain high levels of intelligent behavior, and this has significant implications for medicine in general and diagnoses in particular.
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